Premier League

GOTP Data: Crackers are usually pulled at Christmas

Awards_VardyGOOD NEWS for Leicester City fans – if you’re top at Christmas, there’s a pretty good chance you will win the title in May.

In the past 10 years, the halfway point leaders have won the title come May no less than seven times.

    P W D L F A Pts Final placing
2015-16 Leicester 17 11 5 1 37 24 38 ??
2014-15 Chelsea 16 13 2 1 37 12 41 1st
2013-14 Liverpool 17 11 3 3 42 19 36 2nd
2012-13 Man.Utd 18 14 1 3 44 25 43 1st
2011-12 Man.City 17 14 2 1 53 15 44 1st
2010-11 Man.Utd 22 13 9 0 28 19 48 1st
2009-10 Chelsea 18 13 2 3 43 15 41 1st
2008-09 Liverpool 18 11 6 1 27 12 39 2nd
2007-08 Arsenal 18 13 4 1 36 15 43 3rd
2006-07 Man.Utd 19 15 2 2 41 10 47 1st
2005-06 Chelsea 17 15 1 1 37 7 46 1st

Leicester’s form is very similar to past title winners – just one defeat in 17 league games. But their goals against column is double that of Chelsea’s last season. Leicester are certainly on course for a Champions League berth next season. Not one Christmas leader has finished below third in the past decade.

  2014-15 Dec 24 2014-15 Final 2015-16 +/-on 2014-15
Arsenal 7 3 2 +1
Aston Villa 12 17 20 -3
Bournemouth n/a n/a 14
Chelsea 1 1 15 -14
Crystal Palace 19 10 6 +4
Everton 11 11 10 +1
Leicester City 20 14 1 +13
Liverpool 10 6 9 -3
Manchester City 2 2 3 -1
Manchester United 3 4 5 -1
Newcastle United 9 15 17 -2
Norwich City n/a n/a 16
Southampton 5 7 12 -5
Stoke City 13 9 11 -2
Swansea City 8 8 18 -10
Sunderland 15 16 19 -3
Tottenham Hotspur 6 5 4 +1
Watford n/a n/a 7
West Bromwich Alb. 17 13 13 0
West Ham United 4 12 8 +4

 

It is clear who the teams in trouble are: Aston Villa, Chelsea, Newcastle, Sunderland and Swansea. You have to assume that Chelsea will get out of their current predicament, but you have to worry for Villa, Newcastle, Sunderland and Swansea.

Teams in the ascendancy include Leicester City, West Ham and Crystal Palace. Leicester have 21 games remaining (with last season’s corresponding result):

December 26 Liverpool Away D2-2
December 29 Manchester City Home L0-1
January 2 Bournemouth Home n/a
January 13 Tottenham Away L3-4
January 16 Aston Villa Away L1-2
January 23 Stoke City Home L0-1
February 2 Liverpool Home L1-3
February 6 Manchester City Away L0-2
February 13 Arsenal Away L1-2
February 27 Norwich City Home n/a
March 1 WBA Home L0-1
March 5 Watford Away n/a
March 12 Newcastle Utd Home W3-0
March 19 Crystal Palace Away L0-2
April 2 Southampton Home W2-0
April 9 Sunderland Away D0-0
April 16 West Ham Home W2-1
April 23 Swansea Home W2-0
April 30 Manchester Utd Away L1-3
May 7 Everton Home D2-2
May 15 Chelsea Away L 0-2

This shows that Leicester will have to improve significantly on their last performance against their opponents in the remaining months of the campaign. But the club’s record in 2015 provides a better pointer to how the 2015-16 season might end. They won seven of their last nine games.

Past pointers

Leicester City have never won the League title at the highest level. Only four times have Leicester finished in the top six: 1928-29 – 2nd; 1927-28 – 3rd; 1962-63 – 4th and 1960-61 – 6th.

www.gameofthepeople.com

twitter: @gameofthepeople

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