Barcelona – Page 2 – GAME OF THE PEOPLE

ONLY FIVE teams have qualified so far for the last 16: Bayern, Bruges, Manchester City, Real Madrid and Napoli. So, there’s plenty to play for in matchday five and there could be a couple of high profile clubs finding their way to the Europa League.

Group A: Ajax – Liverpool; Napoli – Rangers.

Ajax, for all their European heritage, are almost out of the competition, although they will probably qualify for the Europa League. Liverpool, despite a stuttering start to the season in the Premier, thought they were finding their form when they beat Manchester City, but they had another setback and lost 1-0 against struggling Nottingham Forest. A draw for Liverpool in Amsterdam will send them through to the next stage. Napoli have already qualified, they are currently the most exciting team in Europe and their performances in Serie A and the Champions League have been impressive. Sadly, Rangers have looked out of their depth and their 7-1 humbling at home to Liverpool really summed up their experience this season.

Group B: Club Brugge – Porto; Atlético Madrid – Bayer Leverkusen

Bruges were one of the first teams to qualify for the knockout phase after winning three of their first four games. They are only the third Belgian team to reach the last 16 this century, Anderlecht (2000-01) and Gent (2015-16) were the others. Their opponents, Porto, need a win to keep some space between themselves and Atlético Madrid, but the second place in the group is likely to be decided by the meeting between these two teams on November 1 in Portugal. Leverkusen have been disappointing this season, both at home and in the Champions League, although they did beat Atlético in the last matchday.

Group C: Inter Milan – Viktoria Plzn; Barcelona – Bayern Munich

Barcelona went perilously close to elimination in the last group game against Inter, which ended 3-3. Inter know that a win against Plzn will put Barca out, regardless of how they face against group leaders Bayern. There has been much angst in Barcelona since the game with Inter, with concerns about their financial situation should they fail to qualify for the last 16. Barca have also lost ground in La Liga, despite the goals of Robert Lewandowski. Bayern, who have qualified, have been impressive in Europe, winning all four of their games and averaging three goals per game, while conceding just two goals.

Group D: Eintracht Frankfurt – Marseille; Tottenham – Sporting Lisbon

Anyone could still qualify from this group, but victories for Marseille and Tottenham could take both through. Frankfurt were unlucky to lose 3-2 at Tottenham, but they bounced back with a five-goal performance in the Bundesliga against Leverkusen. Marseille have been going well but were beaten by title rivals in France, Paris Saint-Germain. Spurs’ early season effervescence has lost a little of its fizz, with defeats against Arsenal and Manchester United, but they are still upbeat. They are particularly strong at home.

Group E: Red Bull Salzburg – Chelsea; Dinamo Zagreb – AC Milan.

This group remains quite open but the fifth matchday should start to sort things out. Chelsea, leaders of the group, are in good form under new boss Graham Potter, although their last two games have been disappointing with draws against Brentford and Manchester United. Salzburg, league leaders in Austria, faced second-placed Sturm Graz. They are still unbeaten in the Champions League group. AC Milan and Zagreb are still in the mix but a win for either will knock the loser out of contention. Milan are still chasing leaders Napoli at home and have lost just once in Serie A.

Group F: Celtic – Shakhtar Donetsk; RB Leipzig – Real Madrid.

Celtic are out of the competition, but still have feint hopes of finishing third and qualifying for the Europa League. Shakhtar, who should be too strong for them, would probably keep themselves in contention with a win in Glasgow. They recently beat big rivals Dynamo Kyiv in the Ukrainian Premier League, but everything is overshadowed by the war with Russia. RB Leipzig have turned their season around in recent weeks and have won five of their last six games. Their two wins against Celtic in the group have revitalised their Champions League campaign. Real Madrid will be a tough task as they are unbeaten in La Liga and recently beat Barcelona in El Clasico, followed by a 3-1 win against Sevilla.

Group G: Sevilla – FC Copenhagen; Borussia Dortmund – Manchester City

This round of matches will effectively be the group leadership decider and the Europa League qualifier. Dortmund host City with the top two places up for grabs. City were beaten for the first time this season when they went down 1-0 at Liverpool, but they returned to winning ways against Brighton. Liverpool prevented Erling Haaland from scoring, but the huge Norwegian will be keen to score against his old club. Dortmund, who came through two table-topping games with Bayern and Union with just one point to show for their efforts, know a win will secure their place in the last 16. Sevilla have picked up in the past few games and should be too good for a Copenhagen side who struggle to win games, although they did achieve a credible draw with City in their last Champions League fixture.

Group H: Benfica – Juventus; Paris Saint-Germain – Maccabi Haifa

Benfica have enjoyed their Champions League campaign so far and are within touching distance of the last 16. Juventus, by contrast, are almost out, although a win in Lisbon will delay the ignominy of an early exit. Juve were beaten 2-0 in their last group game in Haifa, but won the Turin derby afterwards and beat Emploi 4-0 at the weekend. Speculation is still rife about the future of coach Max Allegri. Benfica warmed up for this game with a big clash against Porto. PSG should win against Maccabi Haifa and followed up their 1-1 draw with Benfica with a 1-0 victory against old rivals Olympique Marseille. PSG may be distracted due to the continued talk of Kylian Mbappe moving in January and there are also rumours about Lionel Messi returning to Barcelona.

THE BARCELONA story is becoming as volatile as the British government’s approach to post-pandemic economics. After a summer of pulling levers, constructing virtuous circles and signing players, Barca’s president told the annual assembly that “together we have saved the club”. That statement was arguably true, but it did involve selling some of the family silver and allowing their prized asset to leave the Camp Nou.

The financial levers the club referred to involved selling part of their TV rights for a 25 year-period to Sixth Street, raising a huge sum of money that eased their financial pain. On the other hand, many felt Barca were merely kicking a problem down the road and taking a substantial risk.

Barca started the season well, but their Champions League form has not been good and they are on the brink of group stage elimination for the second successive year. The amount they could lose, which could be around € 20 million, would be offset against potential income from finishing third in the group and moving across to the Europa, but the psychological effect of being exiled to Thursday night football is just as significant. If Barca ever needed a good Champions League campaign to remind people of their elite status, it was this season.

The 3-3 draw with Inter Milan in front of 92,000 people was an exciting game that highlighted the appeal of the Champions League; when it’s good, it can be very good. But their failure to trigger another of their famous escapes also provided more evidence that Barca are a diminishing force on the European stage and the timing couldn’t have been worse. Barca are about to face Real Madrid in the first Clásico of 2022-23, and the gossip has centred on the future of coach Xavi – “The confidence in Xavi is intact” – the real agenda of Barca president Joan Laporta and the possibility the club may have to sell more assets or players to raise cash. Some of Barca’s players are long in the tooth, but essentially, the game at the Bernabéu is a meeting between the top two and Barca are on top of the La Liga table. There is not an awful lot wrong with the actual team, Barca’s problem is the past and a period of excess.

It is hard not to see the club’s finances and psyche as acutely precarious, even though they did make a pre-tax profit of € 124 million in 2021-22. Furthermore, they may have generated € 1 billion in 2021-22, but € 344 million of that came from the sale of assets. Take the € 266 million initial TV rights sale out of the equation and revenues were € 750 million. That’s a very good figure, but the club’s sporting payroll totalled € 518 million, down from € 617 million in 2020-21, but still way too burdensome. At the assembly meeting, the club said it was working to terminate the contracts of some high-earning players who are a drain on the wage bill, but this is obviously a sensitive matter.

The club is confident, however, that it can continue to grow revenues in 2022-23 and anticipates an increase to € 1.3 billion, with a pre-tax profit of around € 366 million. At the same time, they see wages rising to € 656 million. This forecast includes the sale of 15% of TV rights for € 400 million. The club also expects to restore equity balance by 2025, slightly ahead of the five-year target they set when Laporta was elected president.

Laporta is still an advocate of a super league, but does not believe a closed league concept is the way ahead. Barcelona were one of the 12 clubs a scheme that was rightly aborted, but there has been renewed energy behind the project, although Laporta sees a structure where the big clubs repeatedly play against each other as an unattractive proposition that would soon become tiresome.

While the loss of Champions League income in itself won’t tip Barcelona into the abyss, it will raise some anxiety at the club. The securitisation of TV rights has been criticised for mortgaging the future, but its success does depend on the club being successful. In other words, Barca is something of a cash machine, but if the club endured a prolonged period of failure, it might cause problems around their long-term sale of TV rights. Hence, every setback will be the source of extreme angst, as we are seeing.