Manchester United and Liverpool: The pit and the pendulum

FOOTBALL has to have its crisis clubs and for the first fortnight of the 2022-23 season, Manchester United donned the black shirt of doom. United were in a hole, victims of their own malaise, their poor transfer record and, apparently, shackled by their owners. Their 4-0 defeat at Brentford was supposedly as symptomatic of decline as their 5-0 humbling at the hands of Crystal Palace in December 1972. To make matters even worse, they had to host Liverpool at Old Trafford and a heavy defeat against their rivals – they were beaten 9-0 over two games in 2021-22 – could spark panic in the streets of Salford.

United’s fans are calling for the club’s owners, the Glazers, to sell and among the people interested in buying England’s biggest football entity is Jim Ratcliffe, a Chelsea season-ticket holder and United supporter. Ratcliffe has a net worth of US$ 28 billion, earned from a successful business career in the chemicals industry. Right now, many supporters see Ratcliffe as the club’s saviour, but so far, nobody has suggested United are even up for sale. Many still continue to insist United belongs to them, but the truth is the club ceased to be the property of its customers when it went public. The soul of Manchester United may rest with those that patronise the stadium on matchdays, but in reality, MUFC is an asset that sits in an investment portfolio.

Although United’s loyal band, and it’s a huge mass of people, might consider the end of the world is nigh with every passing defeat and demonstration of incompetence, observers from the outside know that the club is big enough and resourced enough to bounce back and become a force once more. With every bad mistake, however, recovery gets more complex and while neighbours City continue on a path of carefully-measured and strategic growth, United’s confused approach seems to border on comical at times. For the second time in the club’s history, United appear to have allowed an individual to shape almost every aspect of the club and along with that misjudgement, they have failed to plan appropriately for succession. Hence, the deck of cards has been slowly collapsing since 2013.

The top clubs are generally smarter than the rest – intelligence is now part of the new football business paradigm

Whether this is solely due to the Glazers is open to debate, but clearly, United have not moved with the times and recognised that intelligence and acumen have created the new football paradigm. The top clubs, in other words, City and Liverpool, are generally smarter than the rest. The most important people at a club are not necessarily the managers and coaches, but those buying and selling players, those identifying talent and the bean counters managing contracts. Managers come and go, but in the future, the most marketable individuals at a club will be sporting directors. The mess at one or two major clubs in the past few years can be partly attributed to bad and impetuous hiring of players, over-generous contracts and poor judgement in the market, not to mention, over-stocked squads of expensive occasionals.

While United fans call for new backers, it has to be asked what type of owners do they want to see in the expensive seats at Old Trafford? While debt, loaded on to the club when the acquisition was funded, is an issue, there has been no shortage of funds made available to buy players. Yet some of United’s transfers have been confusing and somewhat peculiar for a club of their size. A penchant for headline-making big name veterans has done little for the reputation of Manchester United and a number of others have not really been of the required quality. This may be the root of the problem, although it is easier to just blame the owners for just being there.

There is little doubt the hiring of the people working for the owners is something they can certainly be accountable for. What sort of owner will eventually turn up? The current trend seems to be for US sports team owners, who invariably want a return and are now becoming very data driven. United is a cash cow and a prime asset for an investor, so it would seem likely that if it’s not Ratcliffe (and nobody knows that sort of stance he would eventually take to team funding), then another US owner would takeover.  The age of the oligarch and sportswashing middle eastern state may be at an end, the former for obvious reasons, the latter because of the negative PR that surrounded Newcastle United. If and when it does happen, there will be no shortage of buyers.

But the very nature of modern football means a team can lurch from crisis to new horizon in the matter of nine days. When Brentford thrashed United 4-0, it seemed that the 20-times champions were staring into the abyss. A 2-1 victory over Liverpool ended with the sun creeping over the Old Trafford stands with churns of milk and jars of honey being served up in the boardroom. Pundits eulogised about Erik ten Hag, the nearest person they’re ever going to get to Guardiola in terms of appearance, who seemed mightily relieved that his decision to leave Cristiano Ronaldo and Harry Maguire on the bench worked. United were [far] better for it. Too much emphasis may have been placed on the win, for Liverpool have been out-of-sorts in their first three games of the season.

Only a fool believes a great team can go on forever

And now, the talk is of Jürgen Klopp’s side being in  a mild decline, which is premature. Only a fool would pretend that a great team can go on forever, the continuation depends on replacing and enhancing a squad while in flight and on the evidence of the acquisition of Diaz and Jota, Liverpool have bought well. Sadio Mané decided he wanted to move on and he’s now at Bayern, but how much of his determination to leave was brought on by the arrival of new, younger forwards?  Mane was sold for just under £ 30 million, a bargain for Bayern, but Liverpool paid £ 67.5 million for Benfica’s Darwin Núñez, a big fee for a relatively untried striker who was red-carded in his Anfield debut against Crystal Palace. Liverpool’s transfer activity is generally carefully handled and their net spend for 2022-23 so far has been just £ 5 million, a big difference to their peers. They also recouped some good money for squad players like Minamino, Williams and Grujic and allowed the popular Origi to move on a free.

But if there are concerns, it should be the inevitable ageing of key squad members. Virgil van Dijk, Joël Matip and Thiago Alcantara are all 31 years old and Roberto Firmino and Mo Salah are both 30. Jordan Henderson (32) and James Milner (36) are even older. On the plus side, Jota, Diaz and Núñez are all 25 or under, and Trent Alexander-Arnold is a mere 23. Andrew Robertson and Fabinho are at their peak but goalkeeper Alisson has years ahead of him. Some, if not all, still have some mileage in their careers, but the time is approaching to talk of succession.

Although the die-hards will be wringing their hands at the way their team has started the season, Liverpool may also be suffering from exhaustion. They had a lengthy, all-fronts campaign in 2021-22, one that culminated with two trophies and two agonising near misses. It would be understandable if they were a little flat after such an intense year, especially given the style of play Klopp advocates. More worrying for Koppites is that Liverpool do appear to have been “sussed” by some teams and this may be prove to be the catalyst for change, if indeed that is possible.

On the evidence of the first three weeks, United are not as woeful as Brentford suggested and Liverpool may not be quite as potent as they have been in recent years. Neither will be in any serious trouble and both will be contending nearer to the top than mid-table. Klopp won’t need reminding that City already have a five-point advantage over his team, although Liverpool will probably still be their biggest challenger, and Ten Hag will be aware that one impressive victory doesn’t make a season. But that could all change in another nine days.

Manchester City and Liverpool won’t be shifted easily, if at all

IT would be nice to say the forthcoming Premier League season is full of unpredictability and intrigue, but the truth is, it is going to the “same old, same old”, with Manchester City likely to win their fifth title in six years and Liverpool chasing them all the way. The romantics hope for something unexpected, a new Leicester story or two, but for 18 of the 20 Premier clubs, the league is about trying to claim places for Europe or staying out of the relegation zone.

The past five seasons have seen the Premier boil down to a two-horse race, with Liverpool largely filling the role of a pacemaker, apart from 2020 when they won their first Premier title. Jürgen Klopp’s side may never unseat City under Pep again, but they have something in their trophy cabinet that City feverishly covet, the UEFA Champions League. And yet when the history books are written about this period of bad taste and bling, City will be remembered for their achievements in the Premier and Liverpool will possibly be remembered for the Klopp factor and the way his reign in the dugout helped to rekindle the spirit of Anfield.

The gap between City and Liverpool and the rest of the Premier is growing by the season. Last season, the margin between second-placed Liverpool and third-placed Chelsea was 18 points, in 2019, the gap between second and third was 25 points. In these two seasons, the difference between City (champions both times) and Liverpool was one point. It is doubtful that any title-chasers have been so tightly matched so consistently. In the past, champions were chased hard, but very few times have we seen two teams go head-to-head so often with such a high level of proficiency. In the 1930s, when Arsenal ruled English football, the main challengers changed frequently, as they did during Liverpool’s golden period in the 1970s and 1980s. Arsenal and Manchester United were fierce rivals between 1997 and 2003 and in 1997-98 and 1998-99, were separated by a single point.

The Pep Guardiola- Jürgen Klopp dynamic makes the rivalry between their two clubs even more interesting. Both preside over “system teams”, squads designed to work within the framework constructed by their manager. Pep has his footballing ethos, Klopp is a disciple of the press. Others have tried to copy but these two clubs also have resources and are smart in the market. They have the best coaches, the best goalkeepers, the most options when it comes to scoring goals.

It is hard to see where an alternative Premier champion can be found. In the last four seasons, the records of the top club have been startling. The top three champions since the Premier began, in terms of victories in a season, have all been recorded since 2018 with 32 victories out of 38. That’s City in 2018 and 2019 and Liverpool in 2020, all winning 84% of their games. The average for the champion club in the Premier era has been 70%.

These teams also know how to score goals; in the very early 21st century, champions like Manchester United (2003), Arsenal (2004) and Chelsea (2005) had a goal-per-game rate of under two. City hold the Premier record with 2.79 in 2018 and their recent successes have above the champion average of 2.13 per game. Three times since 2018, City have enjoyed a goal difference of over 70 goals. City, as well as scoring prolifically at times, also keep their own goal relatively intact, although not as effectively as José Mourinho’s Chelsea of 2005 and 2006.

Over the past five years, including the 2022-23 season, Manchester City have spent £ 580 million on transfers, compared to Liverpool’s £ 405 million. City have been very active in player trading and have brought in £ 413 million in transfer sales. Their net spend has been £ 168 million in this period. Liverpool accrued £ 191 million in transfer sales, resulting in a net outlay of £ 212 million. City pay more than any other Premier League wages (as per 2020-21 financials), with their £ 323 million just £ 18 million higher than Liverpool’s wage bill.

The overwhelming strength in both clubs is clear to see and that’s why it will take something spectacular to knock either of them off their pedestal. The two-horse race resumes on August 5, the same contenders.