THREE big-name Italians, one Portuguese and only a single representative from Spain; the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals have some familiar names, but there’s some notable absences such as Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool. Although it’s not a dramatic sea change, it is refreshing to see teams like Napoli and Benfica in the mix and not one but two Milans. And although their fans may not be happy, it is also good, and one might say healthy, that the emphasis shifts away from Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.

There is a reasonable chance we will have a new winner of the competition; Manchester City and Napoli are the only two of the eight who haven’t won the Champions League, although both have European silverware under their belt – City the now defunct Cup-Winners’ Cup and Napoli the UEFA Cup when it was a strong and arduous journey to glory. 

Manchester City have become last eight regulars and have been there seven times in the past decade. Only FC Bayern (9) and Real Madrid (8) have been there more since 2013-14. They’ve not had the hardest route to this stage, but they have been unbeaten in their eight games. They reminded everyone of their underlying strength with their Erling Haaland-inspired 7-0 humbling of RB Leipzig and with the Premier League title possibly going to London, the Champions League – their elusive holy grail – will be the priority. Certainly, the fact that Pep Guardiola has said in the media his regime will be judged on European success hints he’s going all-out to tick that box.

The other Premier League side, Chelsea, are not in great shape at the moment, but they demonstrated their Champions League credentials by disposing of Borussia Dortmund. Chelsea’s two triumphs in the competition (2012 and 2021) have both come when few would have predicted success, so this is just the sort of situation they might relish. However, from afar the club looks in limbo at the moment and 2023-24 will be a year when expectation rises through the roof of Stamford Bridge. Chelsea were the last new winners of the Champions League in 2012.

Napoli have had a tremendously cavalier campaign and should be confirmed Serie A champions for the third time in the next few weeks. They score goals for fun and in Victor Osimhen, they have one of Europe’s most coveted strikers. He scored twice against Eintracht Frankfurt as they cruised into the quarter-finals 5-0 on aggregate. Napoli have been exciting in their Serie A and Champions League games, but how would they fare against, for example, City, Real Madrid or Bayern Munich? 

Of the three Italian sides, Napoli are currently the most formidable, but the Milan pair know how to grind-out results – hence the way they both overcome Tottenham Hotspur and Porto. It has to be noted that Chelsea, even in their muddled state, beat AC Milan twice and Bayern Munich comfortably won both matches in the group stage. Both Milan and Inter seem to have suspect defences and have conceded almost twice as many goals as Napoli in 2022-23. Nobody really expects either of them to win the Champions League, but equally, few expect them to go quietly.

First time winners of the European Cup/Champions League

Real Madrid, who are trailing Barcelona in the league, find they are on their own as flag-bearers for La Liga. In six of the last 10 years, Spain have had three reps, but in two of the last three, only one yellow and red flag has made it through. But Real have the experience and know-how of winning Champions Leagues on a regular basis and it rarely correlates to the annual power struggle in Spain. In fact, who fancies two-legs with Carlo Ancelotti’s seasoned team? Their record against the current quarter-finalists is a win rate of 75% and although they still have ageing virtuosos in their line-up, they manage to pull it off regularly in big games. Look at the way they pulled Liverpool apart and then did enough at the home to sew things up. In order to win the competition, to quote the old adage, Real Madrid have to be beaten at some point. Any takers?

Bayern Munich may fancy it, but they are not the #FCB of Lewandowski and Muller when they were at their peak. They had a very challenging group that included Inter Milan and Barcelona and then faced Paris Saint-Germain. Nobody can say they have had it easy.  But they’re not getting it all their own way in the Bundesliga, either. They may have lost only two games, but they find themselves in a genuine title race this season, with Borussia Dortmund just two points behind them after 24 games. The two sides meet on April 1 at the Allianz Arena, 10 days before the Champions League quarters get underway.

The outsiders are undoubtedly Benfica, who have had an outstanding year and also came through a hard group that included PSG (Messi, Neymar, Mbappe et al) and the fading force of Juventus. They had to go through two qualifying rounds to get that far, beating Ukraine’s Dynamo Kyiv and Midtjylland of Denmark. They overcome, with some panache, Belgium’s Club Brugge, managed briefly by Scott Parker, in the last 16 (7-1 on aggregate). Benfica have also been excellent at home and have an eight-point lead over Porto in the Primeira Liga. They continue to be canny operators in the transfer market , selling over € 250 million worth of players this season and took advantage of the World Cup halo syndrome by selling Enzo Fernandez for €121 million to Chelsea. They still have two outstanding front men in Joao Mario and Goncalo Ramos, who have netted 44 goals between them. The latter will surely be on someone’s shopping list this summer.

So who will win the Champions League this season? The favourites will surely be Real, Manchester City and Bayern, but not in that order. Then maybe Napoli and Chelsea with anything from AC Milan or Inter being a shock victory. Benfica, for all their excitement and heritage, don’t look to have too much chance. It would be nice, though, wouldn’t it – Napoli v Benfica?.