Champions League last eight: The return of Italy

THREE big-name Italians, one Portuguese and only a single representative from Spain; the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals have some familiar names, but there’s some notable absences such as Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool. Although it’s not a dramatic sea change, it is refreshing to see teams like Napoli and Benfica in the mix and not one but two Milans. And although their fans may not be happy, it is also good, and one might say healthy, that the emphasis shifts away from Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.

There is a reasonable chance we will have a new winner of the competition; Manchester City and Napoli are the only two of the eight who haven’t won the Champions League, although both have European silverware under their belt – City the now defunct Cup-Winners’ Cup and Napoli the UEFA Cup when it was a strong and arduous journey to glory. 

Manchester City have become last eight regulars and have been there seven times in the past decade. Only FC Bayern (9) and Real Madrid (8) have been there more since 2013-14. They’ve not had the hardest route to this stage, but they have been unbeaten in their eight games. They reminded everyone of their underlying strength with their Erling Haaland-inspired 7-0 humbling of RB Leipzig and with the Premier League title possibly going to London, the Champions League – their elusive holy grail – will be the priority. Certainly, the fact that Pep Guardiola has said in the media his regime will be judged on European success hints he’s going all-out to tick that box.

The other Premier League side, Chelsea, are not in great shape at the moment, but they demonstrated their Champions League credentials by disposing of Borussia Dortmund. Chelsea’s two triumphs in the competition (2012 and 2021) have both come when few would have predicted success, so this is just the sort of situation they might relish. However, from afar the club looks in limbo at the moment and 2023-24 will be a year when expectation rises through the roof of Stamford Bridge. Chelsea were the last new winners of the Champions League in 2012.

Napoli have had a tremendously cavalier campaign and should be confirmed Serie A champions for the third time in the next few weeks. They score goals for fun and in Victor Osimhen, they have one of Europe’s most coveted strikers. He scored twice against Eintracht Frankfurt as they cruised into the quarter-finals 5-0 on aggregate. Napoli have been exciting in their Serie A and Champions League games, but how would they fare against, for example, City, Real Madrid or Bayern Munich? 

Of the three Italian sides, Napoli are currently the most formidable, but the Milan pair know how to grind-out results – hence the way they both overcome Tottenham Hotspur and Porto. It has to be noted that Chelsea, even in their muddled state, beat AC Milan twice and Bayern Munich comfortably won both matches in the group stage. Both Milan and Inter seem to have suspect defences and have conceded almost twice as many goals as Napoli in 2022-23. Nobody really expects either of them to win the Champions League, but equally, few expect them to go quietly.

First time winners of the European Cup/Champions League

1Real Madrid1955-56Spain
3AC Milan1962-63Italy
4Inter Milan1963-64Italy
6Manchester United1967-68England
8Ajax Amsterdam1970-71Netherlands
9Bayern Munich1973-74West Germany
11Nottingham Forest1978-79England
12Aston Villa1981-82England
13Hamburg1982-83West Germany
15Steaua Bucharest1985-86Romania
17PSV Eindhoven1987-88Netherlands
18Red Star Belgrade1990-91Yugoslavia
20Olympique Marseille1992-93France
21Borussia Dortmund1996-97Germany

Real Madrid, who are trailing Barcelona in the league, find they are on their own as flag-bearers for La Liga. In six of the last 10 years, Spain have had three reps, but in two of the last three, only one yellow and red flag has made it through. But Real have the experience and know-how of winning Champions Leagues on a regular basis and it rarely correlates to the annual power struggle in Spain. In fact, who fancies two-legs with Carlo Ancelotti’s seasoned team? Their record against the current quarter-finalists is a win rate of 75% and although they still have ageing virtuosos in their line-up, they manage to pull it off regularly in big games. Look at the way they pulled Liverpool apart and then did enough at the home to sew things up. In order to win the competition, to quote the old adage, Real Madrid have to be beaten at some point. Any takers?

Bayern Munich may fancy it, but they are not the #FCB of Lewandowski and Muller when they were at their peak. They had a very challenging group that included Inter Milan and Barcelona and then faced Paris Saint-Germain. Nobody can say they have had it easy.  But they’re not getting it all their own way in the Bundesliga, either. They may have lost only two games, but they find themselves in a genuine title race this season, with Borussia Dortmund just two points behind them after 24 games. The two sides meet on April 1 at the Allianz Arena, 10 days before the Champions League quarters get underway.

The outsiders are undoubtedly Benfica, who have had an outstanding year and also came through a hard group that included PSG (Messi, Neymar, Mbappe et al) and the fading force of Juventus. They had to go through two qualifying rounds to get that far, beating Ukraine’s Dynamo Kyiv and Midtjylland of Denmark. They overcome, with some panache, Belgium’s Club Brugge, managed briefly by Scott Parker, in the last 16 (7-1 on aggregate). Benfica have also been excellent at home and have an eight-point lead over Porto in the Primeira Liga. They continue to be canny operators in the transfer market , selling over € 250 million worth of players this season and took advantage of the World Cup halo syndrome by selling Enzo Fernandez for €121 million to Chelsea. They still have two outstanding front men in Joao Mario and Goncalo Ramos, who have netted 44 goals between them. The latter will surely be on someone’s shopping list this summer.

So who will win the Champions League this season? The favourites will surely be Real, Manchester City and Bayern, but not in that order. Then maybe Napoli and Chelsea with anything from AC Milan or Inter being a shock victory. Benfica, for all their excitement and heritage, don’t look to have too much chance. It would be nice, though, wouldn’t it – Napoli v Benfica?.

Manchester City: The rug may be pulled away, but it could be a very long game

THE NEWS that the Premier League has charged Manchester City with breaching financial rules over 100 times was generally well received by the football community, with schadenfreude the dominant theme along with a sense of relief that common sense was at last prevailing. Ever since football clubs started benefitting from financial steroids (call it what you will), the rest of the game has longed to catch out clubs like City, Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain. All around the football stadiums of Britain, the cry of “gotcha” could vaguely be heard.

There’s no great wave of sympathy for City at the moment, firstly because everyone knows they have the financial clout to employ the best lawyers for the duration and fight out a war of attrition, and secondly, because you get the impression City are no mugs. Nevertheless, people want justice to be done. Henry Winter in The Times commented that it is “time to lawyer up” and “If Manchester City are guilty, the league must make an example of them”. That is exactly what the Premier League will do, but they must be prepared for the long game.

The Guardian’s Barney Ronay believes that if City have broken so many rules, they have betrayed football as a spectacle. “If they are found guilty, and this is a long way off, pegged between appeals, arbitration and the distant, dazzling prospect of a trip to the high court, then the punishment must be commensurately harsh.”

Manchester City’s performances – 2009 to 2018


Unsurprisingly, City’s “big six” rivals, who have been denied success by the club’s dominance, are among the loudest voices calling for punishment. “The matter will not be referred to an independent commission, but it is reported that many of English football’s top teams are eager to see City pay the price,” reported The Daily Mail

Talk of relegation, points deduction and even ceremonial cancelling of honours is premature, although it makes good headlines in newspapers and on TV and radio. Should City be forced to hand back the prizes they won between 2009-10 and 2017-18 (the period in question), then there will be significant collateral damage: “Nothing erodes the legitimacy of a sporting competition like titles being stripped and that prospect could come at a point when the Premier League is in an unprecedented position of power in the sport, when virtually everyone is concerned with keeping that going,” reported Miguel Delaney of the Independent.

Reputations will be soiled and the immediate repercussions on football could be significant – this is, after all, the most successful, heavily marketed competition in the game. Little wonder people are talking about doomsday scenarios such as Pep Guardiola leaving City along with star players. Indeed, Rory Smith of the New York Times, described the roll call of breaches like a “doom scroll of letters and numbers” that resembled a list of artificial colourings and preservatives.

Transfer activity 2009-10 to 2017-18

 Transfer spend (€m)Transfer income (€m)Net spend (€m)
Manchester City1,440380(1,063)
Manchester United1,010385(621)
Source: Transfermarkt

Of course, City have been here before when UEFA tried to charge them on overstating sponsorship, among other things, but the Court of Arbritration for Sport (CAS) cleared them of financial irregularities. This time, they cannot call on CAS.

Kieran Maguire, speaking to the Manchester Evening News, said the allegations are so powerful the outcome could be transformational for City, the FA and the Premier League. “If you look at the charges as an overall body of work, the Premier League have effectively said that Manchester City have systematically misrepresented their finances for a period of at least nine years in order to gain an advantage.”

Manchester City key financials 2009-10 to 2017-18

 Revenues £mP&L pre-tax £mWages£mWage to income Ratio %
Source: Manchester City financial statements

For the Premier League, the City case could be a defining moment. If they succeed, in an age when elite clubs are trying to form a super league, it could present them as having some pretty sharp teeth. On the other hand, humiliation for City may possibly boost the drive for that very breakaway competition – not forgetting that super league advocates Juventus have also been in trouble. Henry Winter pointed out that “the Premier League has struggled to cope with City’s delaying tactics, alleged tactical fouling outside the witness box”. He also added that a prolonged saga will damage the Premier, English football and build greater tension between fan groups. 

Everyone bar the lawyers (who always emerge as winners) will be hoping for a swift (and face-saving) conclusion, but don’t bank on it.