THERE’S STILL 11 games to go, but the outlook seems rather grim for Scunthorpe United who sit 10 points off safety and have won just twice in 21 League Two games. There seems to be an air of resignation about the immediate future of the “Irons” and people are now starting to ask whether the club can hang on to certain players and if manager Keith Hill can get them out of the National League at the first attempt.
Scunthorpe are not alone in the struggle to avoid the drop, but they are looking somewhat isolated at this stage of the campaign. If they are relegated, it will end a 72-year stint in the Football League. A poor run of results may have brought home the reality of the situation. Unless there’s a dramatic change of form, it does look like National League football is inevitable. However, as recently as the end of January, chairman Peter Swann said Scunthorpe were not even contemplating relegation. He might be making plans now for a very different fixture list in 2022-23.
Swann has been absent from some games this season as he’s become quite unpopular. Yet he has invested (is that the right word?) more than £ 20 million in the club since taking control in 2013. He has a 90% stake and apparently, is open to anyone buying the club from him.
Keith Hill, who was hired in November 2021, is a respected fellow, but he doesn’t seem to have strengthened the cause and his win rate of 9% merely underlines the predicament Scunthorpe now find themselves in. The January transfer window saw an influx of new faces at the club, no less than eight players arriving either on free transfers or on loan deals. These included striker Joe Nuttall from Blackpool, a former member of Manchester City’s academy, Rekeil Pyke, another forward, on loan from Shrewsbury, and defenders Ryan Delaney from Morecambe and Luke Matheson from Wolves.
The influx of fresh talent altered the face of the team, but have not brought about a change of fortune – Scunthorpe simply cannot score goals (just 24 in 35 games) and cannot stop conceding (almost two per game so far).
The writing has been on the wall for a few years as Scunthorpe have finished lower than the season before for five years – 3rd and then 5th in League One, 23rd and relegated, 20th and 22nd in League Two. Little wonder attendances have dropped by 36% since the last pre-covid season. Crowds are currently at their lowest level since 1997.
Swann recently transferred the club’s stadium and training site to his company, Coolsilk Property and Investment, a move that upset some fans. But this was designed to attract investors for the land adjacent to the ground and create new revenue streams. Swann intends to eventually return the assets to the club.
The financial statements for 2020-21 have not been made public yet, but the trend has not very positive. In the past five years, Scunthorpe have run up losses of £ 17.6 million and their wage bill has been dangerously above earnings. For example, in 2018-19, the wage-to-income ratio was 156%.
A second relegation in four seasons would mean significant financial adjustments. Although any club falling into the National League has a good chance to regaining its Football League place, it is not an easy task, hence it is important to remain intact and avoid any systemic collapse. In the past 10 years, only Cheltenham Town and Bristol Rovers have secured promotion at the first attempt. The most recent relegated clubs, Southend United and Grimsby Town don’t look like they will do it in 2021-22.
The economics of relegation manifest themselves in the form of lower revenues as a result of smaller attendances and less lucrative sponsorship. Chesterfield, when they were relegated in 2018, saw income decline from £ 5.9 million to £ 3.9 million but their wage bill still consumed 85% of revenues as opposed to 69% as an EFL club.
Scunthorpe need some stability to arrest the slide and if that means a spell in non-league, their fans can become accustomed to winning games again. In five seasons, they have won just 58 of 210 games, that’s a win rate of 28% and the total for 2020-21 and 2021-22 is 17 league wins in 81.
Stability also means less of a revolving door in the dugout, notably around the manager’s job. Scunthorpe have had eight managers in three years, hardly a recipe for continuity. If Scunthorpe are to stay up, they need to start winning and hope the other candidates for the drop – Barrow, Oldham, Stevenage, Leyton Orient and Colchester – embark on a bad run. As it stands, they have a lot of ground to make up and it may just be too late.