UEFA Champions League – GAME OF THE PEOPLE

IT IS tempting in the modern game to forget about the past and proclaim the current champions as the best bunch of players on the planet ever to kick a ball. In recent years, Liverpool 2020, Manchester City 2019 and 2022, Arsenal 2004, Chelsea 2005 and Manchester United 1999 have all had premature garlands placed around their necks. You get the feeling the current City side, with their intense focus on three trophies, are about to receive the same treatment.

In the spirit of presentism, City are certainly the best ever team of 2022-23. They have overcome the challenge of Arsenal, avoided banana skins in the Champions League and eased their way to Wembley for the FA Cup final. They are favourites for the two forthcoming finals.

But there have been City teams that have ended with slightly more impressive league records and we have to remember that they have been beaten in the Premier four times. But even when they have lost (all by the odd goal), they have outplayed their opponents and averaged 68.3% possession. Their average for the entire Premier campaign so far is over 65%.

City claim they have one of the smallest squads, and it is true they consistently play fewer players during the league programme than most of their rivals. They have used 23 in 2022-23, while Arsenal have fielded 27, Liverpool 29, Manchester United 26 and Chelsea 32, to name but a few. City’s financial resources mean they can buy top quality and they rarely make mistakes in player recruitment. Their squad has been built mostly during the Guardiola era, starting with the likes of John Stones and Ilkay Gündogan in 2016-17. Over a billion euros has been spent constructing City’s team, while over € 600 million has been received in player sales. Their wealth means that they have top talent to sell, witness the transfers of Sterling, Zivchenko and Jesus.

Guardiola became only the second manager to win three titles in a row with the same club when City clinched the title following Arsenal’s collapse at Nottingham Forest. Sir Alex Ferguson was the first to achieve this remarkable feat in 2001 and repeated it in 2009. Contrary to football folklore, Herbert Chapman did not win three consecutive titles at either Huddersfield and Arsenal. Others, such as José Mourinho (Chelsea), Bob Jackson (Portsmouth), Stan Cullis (Wolves), Matt Busby (Manchester United) and Bob Paisley (Liverpool) have won two successive championships.

With two games remaining, City have won 28 games, of which just seven were by a one-goal margin. Line that up against Guardiola’s previous Premier wins with the club, when City won nine or 10 by a single goal, the suggestion is that City might be pulling away from their rivals a little. City have won 18 games by two or three goals, eight more than 2021-22.

Comparing City’s record this season to other much celebrated sides of the past is also favourable; Arsenal’s “invincibles” may have been unbeaten, but they won three games by 1-0, 10 by 2-1 and one by 3-2. As for Chelsea in 2005, they lost once but won 1-0 11 times and 2-1 once. It is not unreasonable to consider City 2022-23 are a more attractive team than either of the two Londoners.

But this City squad, which has a valuation of just over € 1 billion, has a lower win rate than two of Guardiola’s title winners. Their current record is 77.78% but in 2018 and 2019, the win percentage was 84.21%, which along with Klopp’s Liverpool of 2020, is the highest rate of all time in the English top flight.

Despite having the goal machine that is Erling Haaland in their line-up, City have not scored quite as many as last season, although they could still match the 99 netted in 2021-22. While they have scored four or more in a game 10 times in 2022-23, a year ago their total was 12 times. Haaland’s arrival changed the way City played, perhaps explaining why their midfielders have not scored as many goals. Haaland has 36 (up to May 22) but Kevin De Bruyne, Riyad Mahrez, Bernado Silva and Rodri have scored 23 goals fewer than 2021-22.

For all Arsenal’s consistency and table-topping leadership for most of the season, there was a certain amount of inevitability about City coming from behind to win the title. They should now finish with a comfortable margin, but it won’t be record-breaking. In 2017-18, Guardiola’s first title was won by 19 points, in 2021, there were 12 points between City and Manchester United. In 2019 and 2022, only one point separated them from Liverpool.

Where do City go next? Soon they will need to replace some of their older players, but you could argue they are already starting to prepare for life without Kyle Walker, Gündogan, De Bruyne and Mahrez. City will, undoubtedly, strengthen their squad for 2023-24 with names like Jude Bellingham (Dortmund), Josko Gvardiol (Leipzig), Rafael Leao (Milan) and Joshua Kimmich (Bayern), already being linked with the club. Next season may be even tougher for City’s opponents.

Manchester City’s remaining fixtures

May 24: Brighton – Away

May 28: Brentford – Away

June 3: Manchester United – FA Cup final at Wembley

June 10: Internazionale – Champions League final in Istanbul.

THE last time the football world eulogised so enthusiastically about the single performance of a team was when Barcelona were at their 2011 peak in the Champions League final against Manchester United. There have been other occasions when perfection has been on the pitch, but the way Manchester City tore apart Real Madrid, the reigning and ageing European champions, was so compelling that even the club’s detractors were purring with delight. It was, in all probability, a signal for their rivals; having conquered English football, City are now moving on to the next phase of the project. It’s called, Ladies and Gentleman, “Europe”.

City have, since Pep Guardiola became coach, won nine major trophies and a 10^th is likely going to be secured by the end of the coming weekend. In that time, they have kicked Chelsea and Manchester United into touch, finished ahead of an excellent Liverpool side and have been too good for the north London duo of Tottenham and Arsenal. This season, Arsenal’s young team have overperformed and made the title challenge real, but they could yet finish seven points behind City. In other words, even the best of the other “big six” clubs cannot compete on a consistent basis with City.

Already, Arsenal’s empty tank is being explained as an inevitable consequence of trying to keep pace with a state-owned club. That they did is to the credit of Mikel Arteta’s team, but the “collapse” was really in a string of draws and finally, a 3-0 home defeat at the hands of Brighton. Arsenal, like Liverpool in recent years, have had to be at their absolute best to seriously trouble City. City’s wealth is one thing, but wealth doesn’t guarantee success, you have to spend your money well and City, generally, do just that. The wealth also enables them to concentrate on quality rather than squad fillers, but essentially, their game-plan and their coach is what creates the gap between them and their opponents.

The bad news is, the gap between City and at least 14 clubs in the Premier is vast: in the five years between 2017-18 and 2021-22, they averaged 91.6 points per season. Liverpool had the second best average (86.4) but after that, no other side managed to break the 70 mark. Chelsea, who were the most successful team in the seven years prior to Guardiola’s arrival, won nine trophies in that period but since Pep turned up, they have won just four. Liverpool, by contrast, have risen to the challenge and have won four prizes in the Guardiola era, three more in the previous seven years. Tottenham have been potless since 2008 and Arsenal’s haul has been five FA Cup wins from 2014 to 2020. Manchester United’s ability to win major prizes has, in comparison to the days of Sir Alex, fallen off a cliff. United’s dominance was stymied by Abramovich’s Chelsea, but Abu Dhabi-owned City are now standing astride football and Chelsea are struggling to keep in the top half of the Premier League. It’s not that they don’t have money, because they have spent heavily, but they haven’t been smart.

Questions have been asked, and will continue to be asked, about Abu Dhabi and City Football Group, but they are the same concerns that have clouded Saudi Arabia’s acquisition of Newcastle United and Qatar’s ownership of Paris Saint-Germain. It is possible Manchester United will be in the hands of Qatar in the near future. We have seen, all too vividly, that football will forget its values when the stakes are at their highest – hence FIFA’s love affair with Qatar and the scenes in Newcastle when the plane from Riyadh landed and brought an end to the Mike Ashley years. Hypocrisy is everywhere in football: if it suits our club, we’ll look the other way.

The trend of state-connected clubs is not at an end yet and for every big takeover that takes place, there will be clubs who start to seek-out a new owner who can keep them competitive. In other words, there will be a certain amount of pressure to follow the oil.

Manchester City could be on the brink of all-out control of English football. When they clinch the Premier League in the next few days, it will be their third consecutive title and the fifth under Guardiola. They could win the FA Cup against Manchester United on June 3 and a week later, will be favourites to complete a treble against Inter Milan in the Champions League final. Who is to say they cannot repeat this stellar performance in 2023-24? Liverpool will be in transition (with or without Klopp), Chelsea are in a complete mess and Arsenal may have trouble motivating themselves after going so close. Tottenham are Tottenham and are still grappling with an identity crisis. Manchester United could be City’s main rival next season, although Newcastle’s evolution may make them into more robust contenders.

The Premier League is said to be the strongest and most exciting league in the world, but it is a two-speed competition with six or seven clubs battling for the top four and the rest hoping to steer clear of relegation. Most have no chance of winning anything other than maintaining Premier status. At some point, this model will surely become stale and crowds will start to tail off, although it may take a while yet. If City and other state-funded clubs begin to make the differential into an impossible chasm, there may come a time when these clubs become too big and their stable mates will be consigned to a level of mediocrity that will be quite unattractive. This won’t be good for profitability, investment or sponsorship. It is absolutely a “gorilla in the room” discussion, but would football actually benefit from taking the giants out of the equation to introduce more competitiveness to legacy structures?

There would be many considerations and lots of hurdles, but the football world has to ask itself if the current aristocracy – Bayern, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain and others – are ever likely to be anything other than richer than the rest. The answer is no, because it is not in their interest to shrink and in modern business, continual growth is the name of the game. That’s why there is a danger to the rest of football that these clubs will forever be in control and the chances of anyone else getting even a sniff of glory is more unlikely than it has ever been. Unless they can find an owner that becomes a king-maker, of course.