THE European Championship line-up is now known and the 24 teams will begin their run-in to the start of the tournament in June. It will be a success, both financially and logistically, because it is being hosted in Germany, who certainly know how to put on a sporting showpiece. This year’s competition looks set to be a very open affair, but the usual suspects will be favourites: Germany, France, England, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Belgium. The Netherlands may also be in with a shout.
In truth, it it is very unlikely that anyone outside these eight nations can win the Euros, although memories of Denmark in 1992 and Greece 2004 are still relatively fresh. There does seem to be a lot of average sides heading for Germany, but then we should not be too surprised as this is another 24-team competition. For the organisers and sponsors, 16 is too small and 32 is certainly bloated, but 24 is an uncomfortable number that doesn’t fit nicely into tournament format. This will be the third 24-teamer.
Why too many? Look at the UEFA membership; there are 55 members and 44% make the finals. The qualifying stages comprise 239 games in which 32 countries are eliminated. There are simply too many international games involving the same 55 countries, be they European qualifiers, World Cup qualifiers or Nations League fixtures. Surely it would make perfect sense to coordinate these requirements to bring down the number of games? Let’s be honest, qualifying competitions can be tedious, predictable and repetitive. Why not use European qualifiers to determine the World Cup qualifiers?
More countries in the European Championship finals does not mean more quality. For example, take the first Euros to have 16 teams, 1996. The average coefficient for the qualifying teams was 11.6875, which meant the field was very strong. In 2024, the 24 teams have an average coefficient of 16.04, which means the competitive field is around 35% weaker than in 1996.
The 24-team format means the first stage (six groups) disposes of only eight teams and four third-placed teams that go through to the knockout phase. Perhaps surprisingly, there are very few meaningless games, despite the increased level of 20 games in the last two editions. If the format extended to 32, it is probable there will be more “dead rubbers”. Essentially, it is about quality and the bigger you make a football competition, the more mediocrity gets introduced. The accountants and marketing folk will argue that a bigger structure means more exposure and more revenues, but the danger is they are merely selling a slightly weaker product.
There will be big crowds for EURO 2024 and because Germany has excellent infrastructure, they will handle it very well. Countries like Albania, Georgia, Slovenia, Slovakia and Romania will enjoy being involved, while Ukraine will undoubtedly be one of the favourites with the neutrals. The European Championship used to have a high concentration of quality and therefore, the entertainment level was high. It is not unreasonable to expect a decent display from the top nations in 2024. The football summer is rarely dull when the Euros are on.
GAME OF THE PEOPLE 